How it works
Write your situation in plain language — a salary negotiation, a startup bet, a major purchase. The messier and realer, the better. No forms or templates required.
Claude extracts the decision nodes, chance events, and outcomes. Probabilities are estimated from real-world analogues and base rates — not made up.
A live decision tree shows expected value per branch. Drag the probability sliders to run your own scenarios. Save analyses and compare them side by side.
Built for clarity
Live EV calculation
Expected value recalculates instantly as you adjust probabilities on any outcome.
Probability estimates with rationale
Every probability comes with a cited analogue — e.g. 'Series A success rates suggest 60%'.
Risk & upside breakdown
Key risk factors and upside levers are surfaced for each branch, not just the top recommendation.
Scenario comparison
Save multiple analyses and compare them side by side to find the highest-EV path.
Get started
Free to use, no account required. Results are AI-generated — treat them as a structured thinking aid, not professional financial or legal advice.
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